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This text, the second volume of Wayne Winston's successful OPERATIONS RESEARCH: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, FOURTH EDITION, covers probability models with recent contributions from financial engineering, computational simulation and manufacturing. The specific attention to probability models with the addition of recent practical breakthroughs makes this the first text to introduce these ideas together at an accessible level. Excellent problem sets abound. The text provides a balanced approach by developing the underlying theory while illustrating them with interesting examples. All of the necessary mathematical requirements are reviewed in Chapter 1.

• Sales Rank: #480310 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Cengage Learning
• Published on: 2003-06-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 10.12" h x 1.33" w x 8.30" l, 3.32 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 744 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review
1. REVIEW OF CALCULUS AND PROBABILITY. Review of Differential Calculus. Review of Integral Calculus. Differentiation of Integrals. Basic Rules of Probability. Bayes' Rule. Random Variables. Mean Variance and Covariance. The Normal Distribution. Z-Transforms. Review Problems. 2. DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. Decision Criteria. Utility Theory. Flaws in Expected Utility Maximization: Prospect Theory and Framing Effects. Decision Trees. Bayes' Rule and Decision Trees. Decision Making with Multiple Objectives. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review Problems. 3. DETERMINISTIC EOQ INVENTORY MODELS. Introduction to Basic Inventory Models. The Basic Economic Order Quantity Model. Computing the Optimal Order Quantity When Quantity Discounts Are Allowed. The Continuous Rate EOQ Model. The EOQ Model with Back Orders Allowed. Multiple Product Economic Order Quantity Models. Review Problems. 4. PROBABILISTIC INVENTORY MODELS Single Period Decision Models. The Concept of Marginal Analysis. The News Vendor Problem: Discrete Demand. The News Vendor Problem: Continuous Demand. Other One-Period Models. The EOQ with Uncertain Demand: the (r, q) and (s, S models). The EOQ with Uncertain Demand: The Service Level Approach to Determining Safety Stock Level. Periodic Review Policy. The ABC Inventory Classification System. Exchange Curves. Review Problems. 5. MARKOV CHAINS. What is a Stochastic Process. What is a Markov Chain? N-Step Transition Probabilities. Classification of States in a Markov Chain. Steady-State Probabilities and Mean First Passage Times. Absorbing Chains. Work-Force Planning Models. 6. DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING. Two Puzzles. A Network Problem. An Inventory Problem. Resource Allocation Problems. Equipment Replacement Problems. Formulating Dynamic Programming Recursions. The Wagner-Whitin Algorithm and the Silver-Meal Heuristic. Forward Recursions. Using Spreadsheets to Solve Dynamic Programming Problems. Review Problems. 7. PROBABILISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING. When Current Stage Costs are Uncertain but the Next Period's State is Certain. A Probabilistic Inventory Model. How to Maximize the Probability of a Favorable Event Occurring. Further Examples of Probabilistic Dynamic Programming Formulations. Markov Decision Processes. Review Problems. 8. QUEUING THEORY. Some Queuing Terminology. Modeling Arrival and Service Processes. Birth-Death Processes. M/M/1/GD/?V/?V Queuing System and the Queuing Formula L=?U W, The M/M/1/GD/?V Queuing System. The M/M/S/ GD/?V/?V Queuing System. The M/G/ ?V/GD/?V?V and GI/G/?V/GD/?V/?VModels. The M/ G/1/GD/?V/?V Queuing System. Finite Source Models: The Machine Repair Model. Exponential Queues in Series and Opening Queuing Networks. How to Tell whether Inter-arrival Times and Service Times Are Exponential. The M/G/S/GD/S/?V System (Blocked Customers Cleared). Closed Queuing Networks. An Approximation for the G/G/M Queuing System. Priority Queuing Models. Transient Behavior of Queuing Systems. Review Problems. 9. SIMULATION. Basic Terminology. An Example of a Discrete Event Simulation. Random Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulation. An Example of Monte Carlo Simulation. Simulations with Continuous Random Variables. An Example of a Stochastic Simulation. Statistical Analysis in Simulations. Simulation Languages. The Simulation Process. 10. SIMULATION WITH PROCESS MODEL. Simulating an M/M/1 Queuing System. Simulating an M/M/2 System. A Series System. Simulating Open Queuing Networks. Simulating Erlang Service Times. What Else Can Process Model Do? 11. SPREADSHEET SIMULATION WITH @RISK. Introduction to @RISK: The Newsperson Problem. Modeling Cash Flows from a New Product. Bidding Models. Reliability and Warranty Modeling. RISKGENERAL Function. RISKCUMULATIVE Function. RISKTRIGEN Function. Creating a Distribution Based on a Point Forecast. Forecasting Income of a Major Corporation. Using Data to Obtain Inputs For New Product Simulations. Playing Craps with @RISK. Project Management. Simulating the NBA Finals. 12. SPREADSHEET SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION WITH RISKOPTIMIZER. The Newsperson Problem. Newsperson Problem with Historical Data. Manpower Scheduling Under Uncertainty. Product Mix Problem. Job Shop Scheduling. Traveling Salesperson Problem. 13. OPTION PRICING AND REAL OPTIONS. Lognormal Model for Stock Prices. Option Definitions. Types of Real Options. Valuing Options by Arbitrage Methods. Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. Estimating Volatility. Risk Neutral Approach to Option Pricing. Valuing an Internet Start Up and Web TV. Relation Between Binomial and Lognormal Models. Pricing American Options with Binomial Trees. Pricing European Puts and Calls with Simulation. Using Simulation to Model Real Options. 14. PORTFOLIO RISK, OPTIMIZATION AND HEDGING. Measuring Value at Risk (VAR). Scenario Approach to Portfolio Optimization. 15. FORECASTING. Moving Average Forecasting Methods. Simple Exponential Smoothing. Holt's Method: Exponential Smoothing with Trend. Winter's Method: Exponential Smoothing with Seasonality. Ad Hoc Forecasting, Simple Linear Regression. Fitting Non-Linear Relationships. Multiple Regression. 16. BROWNIAN MOTION, STOCHASTIC CALCULUS, AND OPTIMAL CONTROL. What Is Brownian Motion? Derivation of Brownian Motion as a Limit of Random Walks. Stochastic Differential Equations. Ito's Lemma. Using Ito's Lemma to Derive the Black-Scholes Equation. An Introduction to Stochastic Control.

About the Author
Wayne L. Winston is Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and is now a Professor of Decision and Information Sciences at the Bauer College at the University of Houston. He has won more than 45 teaching awards, including the school-wide MBA award six times. His current interest is in showing how spreadsheet models can be used to solve business problems in all disciplines, particularly in finance, sports, and marketing. In addition to publishing more than 20 articles in leading journals, Dr. Winston has written such successful textbooks as OPERATIONS RESEARCH: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, SIMULATION MODELING WITH @RISK, DATA ANALYSIS FOR MANAGERS, SPREADSHEET MODELING AND APPLICATIONS, MATHLETICS, DATA ANALYSIS AND BUSINESS MODELING WITH EXCEL 2013, MARKETING ANALYTICS, and FINANCIAL MODELS USING SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION. He received his B.S. degree in mathematics from MIT and his Ph.D. in operations research from Yale.

Most helpful customer reviews

5 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Add this to the list of worthless math books
By Engi Nerd
As expected, the book was very scarce on good examples. The theory is there, but several steps are jumped between explanations forcing the reader to visit sources outside of the book to fully understand the concept. Transistion between lessons wasn't smooth wither; there are areas where it asks the reader to refer to Volume 1. What happens if you don't own Volume 1? The book sucks...just like the majority of other math books.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Lacks answers to chapter problems
By Justin C. Samsel
This book does a relatively good job covering the topics in probability and modeling. Would be better if more examples were provided, and explanations in the examples did not skip over some of the simple calculations. What I dislike the most is the lack of answers to chapter problems. I've taken a number of math courses and every book I've ever used gave answers to the odd problems. This is critical to the learning process as it can be nearly impossible to know whether or not you're understanding the concepts and coming up with the right answers without some answers to guide you.

It's like learning to shoot a gun without ever getting to see your target after practice.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great price and quick shipping...
By Gary A. Johnson
Only one complaint the binding broke on the book a week or two after I received it, but have not lost a page and the semester is over next week.

See all 6 customer reviews...

Introduction to Probability Models: Operations Research, Volume II (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac), by Wayne L. Winston PDF
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* Free Ebook Intermediate Algebra with CD-ROM, Third Edition (Available Titles CengageNOW), by Alan S. Tussy, R. David Gustafson

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Tussy and Gustafson's fundamental goal is to have students read, write, and talk about mathematics through building a conceptual foundation in the language of mathematics. Their text blends instructional approaches that include vocabulary, practice, and well-defined pedagogy, along with an emphasis on reasoning, modeling, communication, and technology skills. With an emphasis on the "language of algebra," they foster students' ability to translate English into mathematical expressions and equations. Tussy and Gustafson make learning easy for students with their five-step problem-solving approach: analyze the problem, form an equation, solve the equation, state the result, and check the solution. In addition, the text's widely acclaimed study sets at the end of every section are tailored to improve students' ability to read, write, and communicate mathematical ideas. The Third Edition of INTERMEDIATE ALGEBRA also features a robust suite of online course management, testing, and tutorial resources for instructors and students. This includes BCA/iLrn Testing and Tutorial, vMentor live online tutoring, the Interactive Video Skillbuilder CD-ROM with MathCue, a Book Companion Web Site featuring online graphing calculator resources, and The Learning Equation (TLE), powered by BCA/iLrn. TLE provides a complete courseware package, featuring a diagnostic tool that gives instructors the capability to create individualized study plans. With TLE, a cohesive, focused study plan can be put together to help each student succeed in math.

• Sales Rank: #2099680 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Cengage Learning
• Published on: 2004-12-08
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 10.00" h x 8.75" w x 1.50" l,
• Binding: Hardcover
• 936 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review
You have done a great job explaining to the students how to read and write mathematically. The writing component helps the student to retain the information and [it will] be helpful to them in a subsequent math course.

I really like these explanatory [author's] notes. They are similar to ones that I like to write on the chalkboard when I am lecturing. This is perhaps my favorite feature of the text. Martin-Gay does have similar explanatory notes, but Tussy/Gustafson has more detail. The authors have done a good job with this.

About the Author
: Alan Tussy teaches all levels of developmental mathematics at Citrus College in Glendora, CA. He has written nine math books-a paperback series and a hard-cover series. An extraordinary author, he is dedicated to his students' success, relentlessly meticulous, creative, and a visionary who maintains a keen focus on his students' greatest challenges. Alan received his Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from the University of Redlands and his Master of Science degree in Applied Mathematics from California State University, Los Angeles. He has taught up and down the curriculum from prealgebra to differential equations. He is currently focusing on the developmental math courses. Professor Tussy is a member of the American Mathematical Association of Two-Year Colleges.

R. David Gustafson is Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Rock Valley College in Illinois and has also taught extensively at Rockford College and Beloit College. He is coauthor of several best-selling mathematics textbooks, including Gustafson/Frisk/Hughes' COLLEGE ALGEBRA, Gustafson/Karr/Massey's BEGINNING ALGEBRA, INTERMEDIATE ALGEBRA, BEGINNING AND INTERMEDIATE ALGEBRA, BEGINNING AND INTERMEDIATE ALGEBRA: A COMBINED APPROACH, and the Tussy/Gustafson and Tussy/Gustafson/Koenig developmental mathematics series. His numerous professional honors include Rock Valley Teacher of the Year and Rockford's Outstanding Educator of the Year. He has been very active in AMATYC as a Midwest Vice-president and has been President of IMACC, AMATYC's Illinois affiliate. He earned a Master of Arts from Rockford College in Illinois, as well as a Master of Science from Northern Illinois University.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
No variable quality here
By FrKurt Messick
One of the first things that jumps out at the reader of this text book is the colour - I remember algebra texts from nearly three decades ago when I first learned the subject, and they were usually fairly boring black-and-white texts. This has colour on every page. There are marginal pull-quote boxes that explain in simpler, verbal language some of the algebraic and mathematical concepts being demonstrated in the problems. There are also marginal notes that give hints (Success Tips, Caution, and Notation pieces) to remind students of key concepts or introduce important and special elements.

Each chapter begins with a new chapter opener, introducing in broad strokes the content of each chapter. This is also keyed to TLE (The Learning Equation) labs that are part of the internet components to this text. The text also includes a CD-ROM supplement for students. Each chapter includes worked examples in great detail, self-check problems and strategy/property boxes that give short explanations of the key concepts in the worked examples.

The progression of topics in the text is familiar to those who know algebra:

Chapter 1 is a review, including review of numbers, basic equations and variables. Chapter 2 begins the introduction of simple lines and graphs, including graphs of functions. The third chapter looks as systems of equations and how to solve them in different methods, including algebra, matrices and determinants. The fourth chapter introduces inequalities, including compound inequalities and absolute value issues.

From chapter five forward are issues of exponents, polynomials, rational equations, radical equations, quadratic equations and attendant issues. These include issues of factoring, dividing, geometric applications, and introduces imaginary and complex numbers.

The final three chapters explore exponential and logarithmic functions (very useful in science), conic sections (two-dimensional analytic geometry), and some theoretical considerations for algebra, especially of interest to those going on to higher math. These include some elemtns of interest to those who will need statistics, too.

The preface includes some study tips for students to follow, which are very important. This is a checklist worthwhile for students in any math class (and can be adapted for students in any other class, too).

Algebra is the kind of subject that few can master on their own without classroom or tutorial instruction; I have yet to meet the textbook that will teach algebra to everyone without teaching assistance, and this book is no different. But as a classroom book, and as a book we use in our Tutoring Center, this is a very useful, helpful and clearly written text.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
No variable quality here
By FrKurt Messick
One of the first things that jumps out at the reader of this text book is the colour - I remember algebra texts from nearly three decades ago when I first learned the subject, and they were usually fairly boring black-and-white texts. This has colour on every page. There are marginal pull-quote boxes that explain in simpler, verbal language some of the algebraic and mathematical concepts being demonstrated in the problems. There are also marginal notes that give hints (Success Tips, Caution, and Notation pieces) to remind students of key concepts or introduce important and special elements.

Each chapter begins with a new chapter opener, introducing in broad strokes the content of each chapter. This is also keyed to TLE (The Learning Equation) labs that are part of the internet components to this text. The text also includes a CD-ROM supplement for students. Each chapter includes worked examples in great detail, self-check problems and strategy/property boxes that give short explanations of the key concepts in the worked examples.

The progression of topics in the text is familiar to those who know algebra:

Chapter 1 is a review, including review of numbers, basic equations and variables. Chapter 2 begins the introduction of simple lines and graphs, including graphs of functions. The third chapter looks as systems of equations and how to solve them in different methods, including algebra, matrices and determinants. The fourth chapter introduces inequalities, including compound inequalities and absolute value issues.

From chapter five forward are issues of exponents, polynomials, rational equations, radical equations, quadratic equations and attendant issues. These include issues of factoring, dividing, geometric applications, and introduces imaginary and complex numbers.

The final three chapters explore exponential and logarithmic functions (very useful in science), conic sections (two-dimensional analytic geometry), and some theoretical considerations for algebra, especially of interest to those going on to higher math. These include some elemtns of interest to those who will need statistics, too.

The preface includes some study tips for students to follow, which are very important. This is a checklist worthwhile for students in any math class (and can be adapted for students in any other class, too).

Algebra is the kind of subject that few can master on their own without classroom or tutorial instruction; I have yet to meet the textbook that will teach algebra to everyone without teaching assistance, and this book is no different. But as a classroom book, and as a book we use in our Tutoring Center, this is a very useful, helpful and clearly written text.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
not exactly what I wanted
By nina c
I'm a student and tried to avoid any instructors edition of the book. I was relaxed when the seller responded to me email quickly. However, The book that made it to my home was an instructor's edition, whick the seller didn't indicate on Amazon site. Although my teacher didn't ask me to replace the book with a student's edition, he gave me many unhappy looks since I've been using the book.

See all 9 customer reviews...

Intermediate Algebra with CD-ROM, Third Edition (Available Titles CengageNOW), by Alan S. Tussy, R. David Gustafson PDF
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Freshman/sophomore music theory is an intimidating and highly technical course for beginning music majors; it may in fact be their first exposure to theory even after many years as performers. Students can become lost in detail and confused by text explanations. Most have difficulty applying theoretical concepts to music. Sight singing and ear training are crucial, related skills which students must develop at the same time as they are mastering theoretical concepts and material.

• Sales Rank: #4066990 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Wadsworth Publishing Company
• Published on: 1993-09-20
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 10.25" h x 8.50" w x .75" l,
• Binding: Spiral-bound
• 336 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
Thomas E. Benjamin has recently retired as Chair of the Department of Music Theory at the Peabody Conservatory of the Johns Hopkins University. A composer, conductor, performer, and music theorist with more than 40 compositions published and recorded, he also holds fellowships and awards from the MacDowell Colony, Yaddo, and the National Endowment for the Arts.

Michael E. Horvit (D.M.A., Boston University), is professor of composition and theory at University of Houston's Moores School of Music where for many years he headed the school's Theory and Composition Department. A composer whose works are widely performed in the U.S. and abroad, his compositions range from solo instrumental pieces and to symphonies and operas.

Robert S. Nelson teaches music theory and composition at the Moores School of Music, University of Houston. A composer in residence and music director of the Houston Shakespeare Festival for 17 seasons, he has also received numerous commissions for compositions and arrangements for the Houston Symphony Orchestra.

Most helpful customer reviews

29 of 30 people found the following review helpful.
not the best choice
By David J. Smey
Of the three texts I have used to teach college-level ear training, this is definitely the weakest. Most of the material is composed by the authors, and it is often ugly, awkward stuff. The chapters could be definitely be sequenced in a more reasonable way (the minor mode, for example, is not introduced until Ch 6) and the level of difficulty is very poorly managed. Indeed, it doesn't seem like the authors have many good ideas about how students actually learn to sight-sing - many of their primitive early exercises (rhythms without meters, melodies that wander randomly up and down the scale) are actually much more difficult than later ones.
I would strongly recommend either Richard's Ottman's "Music for Sight-Singing" or Berkowitz-Fontrier-Kraft's "A New Approach to Sight Singing" over this book.

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Drawing on their extensive clinical experience in leading groups and training group leaders, Marianne and Jerry Corey provide a clear, personal, hands-on resource filled with examples, guidelines, insights, and ideas that show how group leaders can apply the basic issues and key concepts of group process in working with a variety of groups. Readers will find up-to-date coverage of both the ''how to'' and the ''why'' of group counseling.

• Sales Rank: #1021392 in Books
• Published on: 1996-09-25
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.25" h x 6.50" w x .75" l,
• Binding: Paperback
• 454 pages

About the Author
Marianne Schneider Corey is a licensed marriage and family therapist in California and is a National Certified Counselor. Marianne has been actively involved in providing training and supervision workshops in group process for human-services students and professionals; she regularly facilitates a self-exploration group for graduate students in counseling and co-facilitates weeklong residential workshops in personal growth. With Jerry, Marianne has conducted workshops in various countries.

Most helpful customer reviews

25 of 27 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent Material, But.............
By Barbara H. Holstein
The Coreys have enormous understanding of group processes and the book contains a lot of very valuable material. BUT, the Coreys also use about three times as many words as necessary to make each point. They repeat the same ideas over and over again, making the book very tedious to read. It is valuable reading, however, if you can suffer through all the verbiage.

29 of 30 people found the following review helpful.
Excellant if you are new to group counseling
By A Customer
I had this book as a text and it was great. I actually read the whole thing before it was assigned. I recommend it to anyone who is just getting started with group counseling.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
This text is very informative and well-organized. Case examples ...
By Carolyn T.
This text is very informative and well-organized. Case examples complement didactic information. Some writing could be lengthy and long-winded - though that is not uncommon in academic writing, generally speaking.

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## Get Free Ebook Student Solutions Manual for Pagano/Gauvreau's Principles of Biostatistics, by Marcello Pagano, Kimberlee Gauvreau

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Prepare for exams and succeed in your biostatistics course with this comprehensive solutions manual! Featuring worked out-solutions to the problems in PRINCIPLES OF BIOSTATISTICS, 2nd Edition, this manual shows you how to approach and solve problems using the same step-by-step explanations found in your textbook examples.

• Sales Rank: #54847 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Cengage Learning
• Published on: 2001-04-12
• Released on: 2001-04-12
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.25" h x .24" w x 7.38" l, .45 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 112 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Most helpful customer reviews

15 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Overpriced and only half the answers
By ninjasuperstar
I don't mind if a company wants to publish an answer key to a textbook separately, but I take issue with leaving half of the problems unanswered. Only the odd numbered problems are answered here, and too many answers are incomplete--skipping critical steps and assuming the reader already knows them. Like biochemistry, learning statistics and other mathematics is more difficult when you are left to repeat the same mistakes over and over. You need the answers in order to learn completely. Since the textbook provides no answer key, this is the best you can do.

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Solutions Manual Product Review
By D. Rogers
The whole idea of a solution workbook is to have the problems completed and explained step by step for clarification. This workbook only adresses less than 1/2 of the practice problems from text book. Additionally the clarifications which are given are as cryptic as the text book itself. ......With that said the subject material is challenging and marginal help is still better than none. That's why I rated this 3 out 5 stars.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Half of the solutions for a textbook written with half an effort
By Silverwing
In my review of the Principles of Biostatistics, I noted that various parts of the book glazed over certain material, did not provide full explanations, and/or provided complicated solutions. Furthermore, the professor was required to step in and supplement the book's guide/instructions with their own, in order for the students to fully grasp/understand the content.

As such, taking that book into consideration, it is important to note that the solutions manual continues this trend. First, the Student Solutions Manual only provides answers to half of the problems from the Principles of Biostatistics book. Second, some of the answers do not follow the age old requirement of students to..."Show Your Work!".

In the end, you can check half of your answers and figure out most of these solutions with some steps still missing. It did come in handy, but it would've been nice to have the full answer guide when practicing every problem in the back of the chapters.

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0534362990 Single Variable Calculus Early Transcendentals: Complete Solutions Manual, 4th Edition

• Sales Rank: #1645429 in Books
• Published on: 1999
• Format: Import
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 939 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A must have.
By Christian
A must for any student using Calculus - Early Transcendentals by James Stewart. Never be lost on another homework problem, and never spend hours doing tedious problem sets!

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Calculus Complete Solutions Manual
By Daniel C
Good reference book for my college calculus book.

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MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.

• Sales Rank: #999285 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Duxbury/Thomson Learning
• Published on: 2000-06-23
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.25" h x 7.50" w x 1.25" l,
• Binding: Hardcover
• 733 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
Robert T. Clemen is Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. He has been an active contributor to the field of decision analysis since earning his Ph.D. at Indiana University in 1984 and is an authority in the use of expert information in decision and risk analysis. He has interests in applying decision analysis in the areas of energy use and corporate sustainabiligy. Aside from his research interests, Bob has a strong focus on making decision analysis understandable to all students at all levels, ranging from high school students to executives.

Terence Reilly is an associate Professor of Mathematics at Babson College. His interests include developing innovative curriculum for MBA programs, particularly distance programs, along with simulation and decision analysis. His research interests are in developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fitting distribution curves to univariate and multivariate uncertainties. Recently, he has developed courses in financial methods using simulation and decision analysis.

Most helpful customer reviews

33 of 35 people found the following review helpful.
Book is OK. Spend extra $20 if you buy used book.
By masala_dosai
There is a software with the book, which has to be used for working on the problems.(The book has no use without the software).
You can register the software only once.
If you buy a used book, you have to pay another $20 to get a new serial # to use the software.
My seller mburns1000 didn't mention about this when I bought the book and I ended up spending another $20.

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
The authors know how to write a textbook!
By A Customer
This exceptional book is worth reading regardless of readers' specialization. A big surprise for those who don't like probability and statistics! This book could be a good introduction to Probability and Statistics with Bayesian approach. Although I cannot point out bad sections, here are some of the topics that could be improved.
Influence Diagram examples are much fewer than Decision Tree diagrams. I'd love to see more complex and elaborate decision model examples for practitioners implementing their own models.
In probability chapter, the authors implicitly assume that Pr(A,B) means Pr(AB) or Pr(A and B) where Pr() is "probability of" and A and B are some events. This is never mentioned in the book (as far as I recall), so it should be fixed for clarity. Also in the same chapter, chain rules and marginalization are not covered explicitly, yet a reader needs to use these general rules in exercises and in some of main contents. These rules are very important in manipulating probability and conditional probability terms.
Although there are few selected answers for exercises, most of the answers are not too hard and they are self-explanatory. So self-study readers shouldn't worry too much.
A curious person who might wonder what decision science and analysis is about, I recommend reading "Smart Choice" by John Hammond, et al. Less math and more compact exposition.
For further study in Influence Diagrams and Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN), a good introduction is "Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs" by Finn Jensen, et al. There are numerous good sites for BBN on web so search them online. For probability and statistics, "Probability and Statistics" by Degroot, et al. or Feller's Volume 1 are good, which are mentioned in the textbook.
Note: I recommend this blue cover version rather than green one as the former comes with Palisade Decision Tools Suite and is published later.

96 of 100 people found the following review helpful.
Understanding Hard Decisions
By Ileana Costea, Ph.D.
Understanding Hard Decisions
So that you know where I am coming from: I found this book while selecting a new text for my senior "Decision & Risk Analysis" course. There are numerous books on this subject, but none are perfect: either the presentation of the subject is hard, talking way above the heads of the audience, or too theoretical, or requiring a high level of math skills, or the presentation is at a too low level, or too narrow in focus, or not covering the whole spectrum of Decision Analysis. I chose this book for various advantages it has. The technical level of math that it requires is low, yet the analysis is high. It is written in a very easy way to read, follow and understand manner. It can be used both as a textbook for a course as well as a reference. It makes use of the most common generic tool for calculating and solving problems, the Excel spreadsheet for the suite of software that comes with the book (Palisades Decision tools) are integrated with it. The book offers a rather complete presentation of decision analysis concepts and techniques: there is a whole chapter on the important topic of sensitivity analysis, another chapter on simulation; and risk and forecasting are also presented.
I find the reference section in each chapter excellent, for it helps the reader tie the literature to the concepts presented. The last chapter which gives an annotated decision analysis reading list is also very helpful. All textbooks need to have these two ingredients. It is true that numerous of the references given in the book are fairly old, but the topic is not in the fast changing computer science field, and many of the original articles and books in the decision analysis area are classics and need to be looked at carefully. (Maybe there is a lesson to learn here for those who give a minus when "old" references are included in a scholarly work.)
The book is very modern for the concepts it presents (influence diagrams - a relatively newcomer in decision analysis, issues of recent interest, such as assessment, ecology and AIDS) and because it also ties with the web. The reader is directed to the web page of the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS and this gives an important tool for keeping the knowledge presented in the book constantly updateable and broadening the spectrum of the interested reader. Another advantage: the book emphasizes structuring decision problems rather the more traditional approach to stress modeling of uncertainty and preference.
I like both the structure of the book (that follows the decision analysis process) and that of each chapter which consist of an introduction, presentation of concepts and techniques, a summary section, challenging case studies accompanied by questions referring to the concepts just presented, references, and an epilogue.
Best qualities of the book: clarity, good structure, interesting real or realistic fictitious case studies - extremely important to keep the student interested in a topic which other books present in a dry way and with just "toy" problems.
Yes, the book is rather expensive, but do not disregard the fact that it comes with a set of software tools which although a student version (with limited-size problems and expiring after a while) it can be time-unlocked for a cost. Most importantly the software does not represent a separate school-only tool, for there exist commercial standard and professional versions that the student will be able to use on real-life problems without the need to go through an additional learning curve, if willing to pay the larger, but non-prohibitive cost. Clear instructions for how to use the software is given in the appropriate sections of the book.
What I would add? A glossary of decision analysis terms, either for each chapter or, with preference, a global one at the end of the book.
A special touch: most chapters end with an epilogue. Each epilogue has a different flavor (a game, a comment on a debated case, etc.) The epilogue does not directly summarize the main "action" of the chapter. It is more like the conclusion section of a musical composition - it brings some additional intriguing element that will keep the interest of the student aroused. This is as artistic in nature as decision science must be!
Review by Ileana Costea, Ph.D. Professor of Engineering, California State University, Northridge Email: icostea@csun.edu
October 18, 2000 Los Angeles

See all 7 customer reviews...

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